Putin, Pakistan, China: Why India has gone to great lengths to protect the special quality of its Russia relationship

Putin, Pakistan, China: Why India has gone to great lengths to protect the special quality of its Russia relationship:

Did Russia just stop being our BFF? The most unedifying sight in the past weeks for Indians has been to watch Russian crack combat troops conduct Druzhba-2016 exercises in Pakistan while Pakistani terrorists struck at Uri. Kind of ironic – the new and improved India-Russia relations were titled Druzhba-Dosti (2014), which was the last time President Vladimir Putin came to India.

Now, it’s nice to have druzhba all around, but there are some no-go areas. Pakistan is one of them. You would think that 45 years after the friendship treaty, Moscow would get it. But it took a private dressing down by foreign secretary and a public chiding by India’s envoy Pankaj Saran a week before an annual summit for Moscow to change its rhetoric.

The Modi-Putin summit this weekend will make the right noises. India and Russia will probably sign the contract for Kudankulam 5 and 6, as the first four reactors chug along nicely. India will get Kamov helicopters, some more Sukhois, and perhaps the Akula submarines.

But Indian business continues to give Russia a wide berth, while Russians have been burnt with Sistema and MTS. The challenge for New Delhi and Moscow is to find some economic ballast for an otherwise defence supplier and strategic partner. In the past year, India has invested in Rosneft, and increased its energy investments in Russia significantly. Diamonds have been a bright spot in a dull economic market, and Indian pharma company Wockhardt will be making in Russia. From railways to energy, it’s the Indian public sector that continues to bet big on Russia.

But Indian students no longer go to Russia, neither do Indian tourists, even those who have loved Russia for years. Indian officials are trying to interest Indian farming businesses to utilise Russia’s one-hectare homestead policy. By the time the first Indians show up in Russia’s Far East, they will be jostling for space with the Chinese, who have already arrived there.

And that is the nub of the matter. As the west has shunned Russia, slapped sanctions on it, Russia has moved east. To China. Chinese students go to Russia, as do Chinese tourists. Russia is now almost completely subservient to China, and don’t believe people who tell you Russia is a proud power and will not subject themselves to the Chinese. They have altered the terms of engagement completely. Indians have been alarmed at the depth and quality of the Russia-China relationship. Moscow is sharing military technologies with Beijing that would have been unimaginable earlier. Just as an example, the JF-17 has the same engine that powered the MiG-29s and 35s.

Russia used to be the big bear in Central Asia. Xi Jinping’s Belt & Road will give Beijing that advantage. In South China Sea, Russia has unquestioningly accepted the Chinese point of view, even conducting naval drills with China after the Tribunal judgment. In fact, Russia is making no attempt to balance its China tilt. It could, for instance, open a channel with the Japanese, but refuses to do so. The India relationship is actually its only balance in Asia. In BRICS, India, Russia and Brazil could balance out Chinese power – but that ain’t happening.

India is conscious of this, and has gone to great lengths to protect the special quality of the Russia relationship. Moscow, as Indians say, is still the first phone-call India makes in a crisis. Some in Moscow and some in New Delhi will say that India has been unfaithful too, by cosying up to the Americans and this is the natural consequence of Indian strategic promiscuity. But since the end of the Cold War, Moscow and Washington have deepened their relationship in ways that India and the US really cannot match.

Until Washington took the ill-advised step of pushing NATO’s borders eastwards towards Ukraine, prompting Russia to go into Crimea and Ukraine. From there on, the US-Russia relationship has been in free-fall. It has had the greatest impact on India’s security interests. India is collateral damage.

India held its nose and refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Crimea or its actions in Ukraine, recognising Russian interests in this area, though it’s a replay of the time when, several decades ago, India had stayed silent during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Even on Syria, India hews more closely to the Russian position than US’s. It’s certainly better than handing out weapons to any bad guy who does not like Assad.

So why is Russia in Pakistan again? First, it’s looking for another market for its weapons, three helicopters to Pakistan being only a start. Second, it would be snatching a US ally to its side. Third, Pakistan is a sub-set of its China exposure. Fourth, it has swallowed the Pakistani pup that IS is the real threat in Afghanistan, not Taliban.

India has no choice but to keep a steady hand on this relationship, diversify it to the extent possible, hopefully without making silly comparisons between Modi and Putin. If US is indeed a stronger friend of India today, New Delhi should lobby more forcefully with Washington that it needs to find a way to repair its Moscow relationship, to prevent the balance of power from getting hopelessly skewed. Hillary Clinton, unfortunately, looks set to continue Obama’s ill-judged Russia policy.

But once in a while, it’s a sweet feeling, knowing that when Indian troops crossed the LoC to strike terror camps in PoK, Russian and Pakistani troops were playing counterterror games in Pakistan.