Terrorism no longer a low-cost option for Pakistan, Indian counter-strikes have broken a psychological barrier

Terrorism no longer a low-cost option for Pakistan, Indian counter-strikes have broken a psychological barrier:

Since the Uri attacks a dominant theme in the national discourse was of capability, and whether India had what it took to take the fight to the enemy. The only thing that separated the believers from the others was faith. Thursday’s midnight operations across the LoC settled that debate.

The strikes did a lot more, which will hold even if Pakistan decides to retaliate. What can Pakistan do? They can ratchet up border tensions, maybe hit some Indians either on the LoC or boundary; they can activate sleeper cells to launch terror attacks in other parts of India; they can attack Indian interests in Afghanistan. All of these would qualify as terrorism, and play into the Indian narrative.

Terrorism will no longer be a low-cost option for Pakistan, thriving under a nuclear threshold. The complacency that accompanied terror attacks from Pakistan just evaporated – Pakistanis were comfortable in the belief that India would be all sound and fury, while Indians would fatalistically shake their heads at “lack of options”.

That will no longer be the case. Terrorism will continue, there will be attacks, infiltration, deaths. But Indians have broken through a mental barrier that we cannot impose costs. That’s why it was important to acknowledge what was a pre-emptive covert counterterrorism operation. There was a message that had to be given to Pakistan, and a message for India.

The political and diplomatic scripting had to be tightly managed. It was no coincidence that the announcement by the army was managed by MEA. The Americans were engaged early to manage the global messaging, the new Chinese ambassador, barely 24 hours old in India was invited to a briefing by the foreign secretary, countries that would swing with Pakistan had been prepped on its increasing use of terror – for the past few months Indian security forces and civilians have seen almost daily hits. The same goes for TV talking heads, which ensured a more uniform voice unlike after the Myanmar operation in 2015, where decibel exchanges drowned out a successful joint operation and pissed off Naypyidaw needlessly.

Pakistan too had to be managed. It was significant that the DGMO actually offered sympathies for the deaths of the Pak soldiers. It’s the terrorists we are after, he said. An early phone call went to Pakistan – just like after the Khost strikes and after Abbotabad, it was important to reassure Rawalpindi with full disclosure, and minimise escalation.

India and Pakistan will no longer be able to go back to the same stultifying circle of terror and talks. The framework for engagement will be substantively redrawn. Even if the two countries go back to the table, India should keep international and bilateral pressure on, particularly to maintain credibility. All the steps outlined this week – Indus Waters, cancellation of Saarc, etc must be followed through. India will take some pain with curtailing trade and restricting overflights, but that’s okay. And hey, Saarc was crying out to be recast – if we invite Afghanistan and Maldives for Bimstec in Goa, it will be a step forward.

Very few noticed Modi adding on “Pashtuns” in his Kerala speech. India’s future diplomacy could consider supporting Afghanistan on its position vis-à-vis the Durand Line. If those four helicopters to Afghan army were the first step, more such steps would be welcome.

The direction of Indian policy towards Pakistan and terrorism should serve as notice to both Russia and China. China openly uses Pakistan as cat’s paw against India. It’s important that Beijing does not get a free ride on CPEC. If Russia wants to play second fiddle to China, that’s its business but India’s security interests cannot be hostage to their flirting.

For years India has believed its Pakistan policy should be about helping them climb back down from their precarious perch. It’s where they want to be and we must recognise it. We don’t need to be a part of it. There is nothing that says we have to save the civilian leadership against the military. Pakistanis can do it, not Indians.

Pakistan should be primarily a security relationship, where building defensive and offensive capabilities are priorities. Leave people and businesses to build their own relationships with each other. This would basically mean having more sensible visa policies and not taking knee-jerk actions against Pakistani actors and artistes.