Who will be a better US president for India

Who will be a better US president for India?

It is not easy to predict the mood of the American people before the election results are declared on January 6, 2017.

As the date for the presidential polls is nearing, political temperature has risen to an unprecedented level in the US, with both Hillary Clinton, Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, and Donald J Trump, Republican Party’s presidential candidate, vigorously trying to ensure their victory.

However, ever since Trump won the Republican nomination, his prospect of winning the election has been overshadowed by controversies. The latest revelations that he perhaps avoided paying taxes for 18 years and the appearance of a 2005 tape containing his obscene comments on women have further put a question mark over his suitability for the post of US President.

This can be gauged from the fact that several senior members of his own party have asked him to leave the presidential race. Though Trump’s defiant performance in the second presidential debate has ruled out the possibility of his withdrawal, it appears very difficult for him to recover the lost political ground in the election next month.

On the other hand, the prospect of Clinton becoming the next president appears much strong, with her registering a five per cent edge over Trump after the second presidential debate. Of course, it does not mean Clinton will have an easy walk to the White House. In fact, she too is facing serious allegations over the mishandling of classified emails as secretary of state.

She has also not so far spelt out how different her approach would be from the Barack Obama administration to address domestic and foreign affairs issues. Yet, what seems to be working in her favour is the fact that a) American people are increasingly viewing Clinton better than Trump for the highest political post of the country and b) the gulf between Trump and several elites of his own party is widening.

Nevertheless, given the degree of unpredictability inbuilt in competitive democratic electoral politics, it would highly impossible for anyone, including experts, to predict the mood of the American people before the elections results are declared on January 6, 2017.

Certainly, given the US’s continued influence on global affairs, the world community is also anxiously waiting to see how the new US administration will respond to important international issues, including China’s assertive posturing in the South China Sea, the crises in Syria, Ukraine and Iraq, the menace of terrorism and others.

Indeed, India is also closely observing the presidential election to understand how bilateral ties between the two countries would progress. In turn, Indian strategists, experts and, of course, the common people are engaged in debating who would be a better US president for India – Clinton or Trump.

Though there is a small section of “nationalist” forces who view Trump as a good President for India, given his anti-Muslim stand, the general feeling in India is that under his administration, New Delhi and Washington may face obstacles in sustaining the momentum gained in bilateral ties over the last two years.

Undoubtedly, there are some convincing reasons for this assessment. One factor that casts dark clouds over the future of India-US ties under the Trump administration is his announcement of initiating a tough immigration policy and hiking the minimum wage paid to H1B visa holders, if elected president.

This in turn would not only reduce the prospects of job opportunities for skilled Indian workers, but would also show a sharp decline in remittances that India receives from its non-resident people in the US. This would have an adverse impact on the Indian economy.

Trump saying that Muslims should be banned from entering the US has also set off alarm bells ringing in India, which has the second largest Muslim population in the world. Though sections of Hindu nationalists have expressed consonance with Trump’s view, the fact remains that the secular character of Indian democracy does not allow the Indian government to share Trump’s degrading views about the Muslim community.

This is possibly why, while replying to a question on this particular issue in the US, defence minister Manohar Parrikar said: “We don’t look towards communities with suspicion.”

Further, except for calling Pakistan “probably the most dangerous country in the world” because of its nuclear weapons, Trump has not outlined his approach towards South Asia. Added to this is his comment that the US should not automatically come to the defence of its NATO allies if they are attacked – it has started a debate about a possible shift in US’s security strategy under Trump.

Of course, at a time when India and the US are trying to develop a strong bloc, comprising Japan, Australia and other like-minded countries, to contain China’s assertive behaviour, Trump’s election as US president may adversely impact this process.

In addition, as Trump does not have the experience of working at any level in the US administration, his ideas and capabilities on many issues including foreign policy are yet to be tested.

On the other hand, Clinton enjoys personal bonhomie with India, the genesis of which was back in 1995 when she visited India as part of her 12-day trip to South Asia. It is believed that later, she played a crucial role in pursuading husband Bill Clinton to revive the India-US relationship, which had hit its lowest point following the 1998 nuclear tests by India.

She co-chaired the Senate India Caucus and supported the India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement. During her tenure as US secretary of state (2009-2013), she further consolidated the engagement between the two countries. Her contribution is greatly recognised in facilitating cooperation between the countries in the field of high technology, defence and in establishing the strategic dialogue in July 2009.

She played an important role in strengthening ties with New Delhi under President Obama’s rebalancing of American policy vis a vis Asia. Her speech in Chennai in 2011 was viewed as a historic movement in bilateral ties between the two countries, where she said “the time has come for India to lead… Much of the history of the 21st century will be written in Asia which, in turn, will be influenced by the partnership between the US and India and its relationship with neighbours.”

She also said India should “not just look east, but engage east and act east”- to emerge and consolidate its status as an Asian power. Her strong stand against Pakistan for its dismal performance in eliminating terrorist havens from its soil continues to have an impact on the minds of Indian people.

In fact, one can imagine the closeness between India and Clinton that had Trump alleging she received funds from Indian leaders. According to the Wall Street Journal, Clinton enjoys a good reputation also among sections of the Indian-American community, which is the third largest ethnic group among Asians in the US, with a population of about 3.2 million.

Unlike Trump, Clinton has recognised the benefit the US has garnered from its outsourcing policy. In turn, the synergy between Clinton and the Indian-American community would further help strength the bond between the two countries.

Her election campaign chief John Podesa said Clinton will take relations with India to a new level and better economic strategic ties with India will anchor the US in the region. More importantly, Clinton becoming US president would ensure continuity of the upward momentum in the relationship between the two countries, enabling India and the US to further expand cooperation in areas of common interest, relating to economics, security, counter-terrorism, climate change and others.