Friday, 2 September 2016

Which country won the Kargil war: Pakistan or India?

Chandan Singh
Chandan Singh, traveler, programmer, thinker, and more!

Before we actually answer this question, one important thing to realize is that the Kargil incident was not a conventional war. It was merely a border conflict, not a full-fledged war. What happened was that when India vacated its higher peak posts during the winters of 1998-99, for returning after the passage of winters, the Pakistani military crossed the LoC and occupied these posts. These vacation of posts was as a part of an unsigned treaty between the two countries to save their soldiers from unbearable conditions of the Himalayan winters. A total of around 140 Indian Army posts in Kargil area  of J&K were occupied by the Pakistan Army.

This incident marked a grave failure of the Indian intelligence agencies (particularly RAW) which failed to pick up any movement or any chatter between the Pakistanis to forewarn the Indian Army or the government. As a result, India failed to even realize what was happening, for months! Indian operations gained traction only after a local shepherd reported to the Indian Army about mass intrusions by foreign elements.

Now, after it became clear that Indian territory had been infiltrated, the Indian establishments moved swiftly and mobilised a large number of troops in order to reclaim its lost territory. Now, although the Pakistani Army regulars had occupied these posts, Pakistan officially denied its involvement for more than 90% of the duration of the conflict. They simply didn't admit to their nefarious designs. They maintained that it was the Mujahideens (Kashmiri militants) who had occupied Indian posts and their Army was not involved.

But then this deception proved not so good for them as India brought in a lot of military resources to regain its lost ground and the Pakistanis couldn't mobilise similar number of troops in retaliation as that would have made their deception obvious to the world. A total of some 140, highly strategic posts were lost by India and everything needed to be done to oust the Pakistanis from there, lest India lose significant grounds in Kashmir. Pakistan Army got into dominating positions over NH1 and were raining deadly fire upon anything that moved on that highway. The idea was to cut any supplies from reaching up to the Indian troops stationed in Siachen and thus force Indians to lose Siachen as well in the process. Pakistan expected their nuclear deterrent to hold back India from replying hard. But they were completely taken aback by India's strong retaliation.
Nevertheless the Indian Army was under severe disadvantages in the fight. The Pakistanis were stationed at higher points and could easily locate and target any Indian advances towards them. But they had not yet admitted to their involvement. This gave India a slight advantage of sorts. India brought in the heavy Bofors guns and other heavy artilleries to aid their infantries with all kinds of shelling and firing on the posts that were occupied by the Pakistanis.

They also brought in the Indian Air Force to bomb these occupied posts. IAF's MiG-21s and Mirage-2000Hs were used extensively to carry out strike missions although the jets could not deliver as effectively as desired because of the unusual height they were made to fly at. But the Pakistanis who had not admitted to their involvement couldn't retaliate with similar vigour, lest their deception come out in open in front of the world. As a result of constant shelling and bombings by the Indians, Pakistanis were forced to retreat, incurring very heavy casualties in the process.

Ultimately, they had to admit to their involvement and that brought them under severe international pressure. They were also forced to vacate every Indian post. They incurred heavy casualties (lost close to 1000 of their men) in the process. And they couldn't achieve their objective either, which was to cut off India from Ladakh area of J&K and hence make significant inroads into the region. The war was a complete failure for Pakistan. There was not a single positive they could draw from their deceptive operation. To put things in context read these lines found in the entry of a diary recovered from a slain Pakistani soldier at the end of the war - "How do you defeat an enemy who has already defeated you in his mind!!" Even the Pakistani soldiers were well aware of their impending defeat. So one thing which we could be dead certain about is that Pakistan definitely didn't win the war.

As far as India is concerned, they managed to defend and regain their lost posts and territories, albeit at the cost of around 550 of their soldiers. But they didn't continue to push Pakistan after that and didn't cross the LoC to enter into their territory for any kind of counter operation.

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