With the deteriorating global situation, the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission
Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia has said that achieving an average growth rate of 9 per cent in the next five years is not possible. The final growth target has been set at 9% by the endorsement of plan at the
National Development Council meeting held in
New Delhi.
"It is not possible to think of an average of 9 per cent (in 12th Plan). I think somewhere between 8 and 8.5 per cent is feasible,” Mr Ahluwalia said on the sidelines of a conference of State Planning Boards and departments. The approached paper for the 12th Plan, approved last year, talked about an annual average growth rate of 9 per cent.
“When I say feasible...that will require major effort. If you don’t do that, there is no God given right to grow at 8 per cent. I think given that the world economy deteriorated very sharply over the last year...the growth rate in the first year of the 12th Plan (2012-13) is 6.5 to 7 per cent.”
He also indicated that soon he would share his views with other members of the Commission to choose a final number (economic growth target) to put before the country’s NDC for its approval.
Though the 12th Plan has taken off, it is yet to be formally approved. The
Planning Commission has set a deadline of September for taking the approval of the National Development Council. The council is expected to meet after July subject to the convenience of the
Prime Minister.
Poverty[edit]
The government intends to reduce poverty by 10 per cent during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Mr Ahluwalia said, “We aim to reduce poverty estimates by 2 per cent annually on a sustainable basis during the Plan period.”
According to the
Tendulkar methodology, the percentage of population below the poverty line was 29.8 per cent at the end of 2009-10. This number includes 33.8 per cent in the rural areas and 20.9 per cent in the urban areas.
Earlier, addressing a conference of State Planning Boards and Planning departments, he said the rate of decline in poverty doubled during the 11th Plan. The commission had said, while using the
Tendulkar poverty line, the rate of reduction in the five years between 2004–05 and 2009–10, was about 1.5 percentage points each year, which was twice that when compared to the period between 1993-95 to 2004-05.
[3]
approved 12th Five Year Plan
The government on 4th october approved the
12th five year plan (2012-17) document that seeks to achieve annual average economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent, down from from 9 per cent envisaged earlier, in view of fragile global recovery. The theme of the Approach Paper is “faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth” .According to officials the projected average rate gross capital formation in the 12th Plan is 37 per cent of GDP. The projected gross domestic savings rate is 34.2 per cent of GDP and the net external financing needed for macro economic balance has been placed at 2.9 per cent of GDP. During the 11th Plan (2007-12), India has recorded an average economic growth rate of 7.9 per cent. This, however, is lower than the 9 per cent targetted in 11th Plan.Besides other things, the 12th Plan seeks to achieve 4 per cent agriculture sector growth during 2012-17. The growth target for manufacturing sector has been pegged at 10 per cent.The total plan size has been estimated at Rs.47.7 lakh crore, 135 per cent more that for the 11th Plan (2007-12).
The “strategy challenges” refer to some core areas that require new approaches to produce the desired results. Thes are:
1.Enhancing the Capacity for Growth
2.Enhancing Skills and Faster Generation of Employment
3.Managing the Environment
4.Markets for Efficiency and Inclusion
5.Decentralisation, Empowerment and Information
6.Technology and Innovation
7.Securing the Energy Future for India
8.Accelerated Development of Transport Infrastructure
9.Rural Transformation and Sustained Growth of Agriculture
10.Managing Urbanization
11.Improved Access to Quality Education
12.Better Preventive and Curative Health Care
Highlights of 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17):
- Average growth target has been set at 8.2 percent
- Growth rate has been lowered to 8.2 percent from the 9.0 percent projected earlier in view adverse domestic and global situation.
- Areas of main thrust are-infrastructure, health and education
- Growth rate has been lowered to 8.2 percent from the 9.0 percent projected earlier in view adverse domestic and global situation.
- The commission had accepted Finance Minister P. Chidambaram’s suggestion that direct cash transfer of subsidies in food, fertilizers and petroleum be made by the end of the 12th Plan period
- After the cabinet clearance, the plan for its final approval would be placed before the National Development Council (NDC), which has all chief ministers and cabinet ministers as members and is headed by the Prime Minister
- Agriculture in the current plan period grew at 3.3 percent, compared to 2.4 percent during the 10th plan period. The growth target for manufacturing sector has been pegged at 10 percent
- During the 11th Plan period, the average annual growth was 7.9 percent
- A full Planning Commission chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on September 15 endorsed the document which has fixed the total plan size at Rs.47.7 lakh crore
- The 12th Plan seeks to achieve 4 percent agriculture sector growth during the five-year period
- On poverty alleviation, the commission plans to bring down the poverty ratio by 10 percent. At present, the poverty is around 30 per cent of the population.
- According to commission Deputy Chairperson Montek Singh Ahluwalia, health and education sectors are major thrust areas and the outlays for these in the plan have been raised.
- The outlay on health would include increased spending in related areas of drinking water and sanitation.
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